When Everyone Is Buliish

When everyone is so bullish about the 2011 outlook, it is time to trim all your stock holdings.

2011 feels like a weird year economically. Something just doesn't feel right, some numbers just don't add up and there is that still-waters-run-deep emotion in the air.

Better be wary. Here are some things to note:

- US debt is still at an all time high. With QE, USD should become cheaper relative to other currencies. But has it? And the US stock markets keep going up when USD is cheaper just because stock values against other currencies are cheaper? Something doesn't quite add up.

- Eurozone troubles all over? I thought they labelled those countries PIIGS for a reason? And with Greece and Ireland dusted, Portugal is next. Yet European markets are flying? Even when the Euro is struggling to exist? Something doesn't quite add up.

- Property in Asia still soaring through the roof. From Shanghai to Hong Kong to Singapore. Even with government cooling measures, prices are still soaring. How much higher can all this go? Something doesn't quite add up.

Get ready for a couple of so called black swans this year. A war, a natural disaster or a terrorist strike. The economic environment is like a house of tinder and wood right now waiting for a spark to ignite a meltdown.

Beware!