Bullish 2024 Ahead

  2024’s tilt is towards a bullish stance.

Bar some type of major war on a global scale (I know there are worrying pockets all over the world right now), it looks like the global economy can chug along nicely.

Interest rates in the US are sufficiently high, with no increases in the horizon, means we are either going to see expected rate cuts or a surprise of zero cuts. In between the expected three cuts vs zero cuts, my personal stance is one cut this year and maximum two cuts.

Main reason for this is that inflation is going to be sticky. And we’re seeing exactly why the stock markets are heading up. Inflation also causes the stock market to go up.

So here’s my own hypothesis below and I am ONLY TALKING TO MYSELF SO THIS IS NOT ADVICE IN ANY SORT OF WAY.

This is bad of course because at some point, people will not be able to afford (people are cutting back heavily on spending since start of the year, layoffs in tech and finance is crazy high) >> consumer purchases will come down drastically >> companies cannot keep up with their overly inflated sales numbers >> flushed institutional liquidity has to invest to keep up with inflation and expectations >> PE will skyrocket >> bubble territory and ATHs.

We are in ATH territory already but is this a bubble yet? My opinion is that we are not even close yet. PE multiples are still not at euphoric zones and you have stocks like the magnificent seven (GOOG, META, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, AMZN) that’s powering into this year with overwhelming strength. 

I also think it is a good time to load up on the magnificent seven but to be very nimble and be ready to sell when we are possibly at the top of the bubble. Of course we will never be able to time where this bubble is so chances are is I will end up buying at the high or selling too early. I am already DCA-ing regularly into a few of the seven, that’s at least my own strategy.

Meanwhile, resist the attempt to short the US markets all through Q1-Q3. Review again in Q4 and see where we are then.

Meanwhile, keep other portfolios separate! 

Dividend portfolio should be kept separate. High interest rate environment has not been kind to it last year but this year it is already recovering and providing some token passive income so I’m glad that I stayed the course. Looking to grow it further as interest rates come down.

Cash portfolio is also growing stronger and this will serve as potential war chest or emergency funds if other portfolios do not perform well. Just save a bit here and there where possible and resist always replying everything into the markets.

Crypto portfolio is STRONG. Just stay for the ride, no expectations but this should 2x or 3x if everyone says BTC and ETH and where it’s supposed to go. Going into the new year up 30% is already a big yay.

Gambling portfolio stopped altogether in 2024 to save money. Lots of money to be saved here if I resist gambling at all and so far so good this year! Just resist losing money to stupid bets.

Hope to huat big big this year!!!

Singapore Motorshow 2024

 It’s been awhile since I went to a Singapore Motorshow.

This years was quite underwhelming considering I had to pay $8 per pax but I was thinking of checking out the EVs for a potential car change (I need to huat a little more first and hope COE comes down soon).

Here are some pix of the best cars imho.

Coldplay Live In Singapore

Had the best time watching them on Day 1 of their Singapore tour where they were putting up six shows!

Brought the whole family, really lucky I managed to get four tickets.

We were at their 2017 show and I really loved it then, but this was a whole new level. I cheered, I sang, I laughed and I cried. It was so beautiful.

Favourite part of the night was when Chris Martin began playing The Scientist on his usual piano and it broke down. He then did it solo with a guitarist and it was the most beautiful rendition ever. Then a reverse of all that in video to transition to Viva La Vida. Just so beautiful.

I went back to the Cat10 seats (basically no tickets so hang around outside the stadium to listen) three days after and pick up a tour T-shirt as well.

Might go back for one last time Cat10 tomorrow just to listen to them. This whole week they’re here is just so magical.

 

Scrabble Is Awesome

 Mum recently bought a new Scrabble dictionary.

Now she’s playing with the kids most weekends.

So wholesome.

And there so many new words included now!

Scam Alert

 << SCAM ALERT >> There are scammers out there posing as me trying to scam victims into transferring them money purportedly for attractive investment gains. 

If you have been contacted by someone by phone or social apps you believe to be posing as me and they are asking for funds, please block them and report the numbers or links used to your local police/authorities.

I have attached on my social media, a screenshot of an imposter posing as me circulating on Telegram (neither Saxo nor myself will use Telegram to communicate with you for any official matters). 

Do be wary and stay safe out there.

Weird Trades

  Something really weird happened last night.

For some very strange unknown reason, I woke up at 4.30am.

Instinctively I checked my expiring options positions.

I was holding on to several large short put positions that were expiring, most were ITM, which meant I was prepared for them to be assigned and pay up for the underlying shares.

The moment I logged into my account, it showed my margin unearthly high at 95%! I was almost about to get stopped out!

So I quickly did an additional top up without understanding why, and brought that margin down.

Then I stay up until past 5am until the market closed.

I found out that in the last few minutes of expiry, the price of the underlying stock was moving quite rapidly, hence causing the margin for the options to spike. So very, very luckily I could do a very quick top up so shore up my margin %, else I would have been stopped out of ALL my other margined positions as well!

All in, it was an easy 10K profit which could have been a 5K loss had I breached my margin limits.

Phew!

Furthermore, the underlying stock jumped 6% for a Friday session, which also meant some of my sold puts expiring OTM, meaning I earned the premiums and had more liquidity for the next short put play! Super nice!

Looks like 2024 is not turning out to be so bad afterall!

Resolutions 2024

 So here we are again.

This year’s version is a little later than I wanted, because I am lazy.

The year ahead is shaping up to be a very volatile year. What with all the lay offs we are hearing in the finance and tech sectors. Many people in Singapore are affected and Q4 2023 appears to be only the beginning of what is shaping up to be a tough year.

Will I get laid off? 

Better start saving harder than I’d normally would.

My daughter is having her PSLE this year, hopefully she does really well.

My son is streaming to upper sec this year, hopefully he does really well too.

Wifey will have a significant milestone this year as well, if everything goes to her plan.

Travel is limited this year for family which is quite the downer for me tbh. It is also limited for work due to my new role. Personally have a trip or two with friends but nothing firmed up yet. Hopefully we have an epic year end one like we did last year.

Need to find some 突破 which can significantly elevate my finances.

Will I find that this year?

Will I have a mega large purchase this year?

Ok back to resolutions, here’s last year’s recap.

Anyways, in no particular order, here are my resolutions for 2024.

1) Pick Up A New Skill

Last year learning and falling (pun intended) in love with snowboarding was personally very fulfilling. I hope to learn something else new this year. Anything significant on a personal level will be greatly appreciated.

2) Exercise At Least An Hour, Twice A Week

Every year an exercise resolution comes into play and this year is no different. I really feel older and my body is weakening. So exercising is the right way to preserve all that I’ve got physically.

3) Go Somewhere New

A new country? A new city? A significant new place? I’d love to travel somewhere that I’ve never been to before, soak in the vibes of the new place and enjoy the moment.

4) Increase My Investing Portfolio Significantly

This is specific and something I will aim hard for. Be it saving more, investing smarter or earning more, this is one goal I want to be gunning for. 2023 was a shit year for me in this aspect, so I need to make up for lost time. And money.

5) Lose 3kg (currently 85kg)

This is another health goal. It is about exercising regularly, sleeping well and most importantly, eating properly. Enough of the sugars and carbs, I will need to keep all that under control. I don’t want to lose too much weight, and don’t want to gain much either.

There you go, and with that, the 2024 season is now in full swing!

Tokyo, Japan 2023

 This was the final leg of our epic trip.

Day one was a bit of a mad rush. We had arrived into Tokyo quite late from New Chitose the night before and took some time to find our hotel in Nakano. By the time we slept it was already past midnight. So the next morning we were still quite tired but had to wake up super early to rush to Disneyland. 

Disneyland was quite awesome even though it was mostly kiddy rides. The parades were a whole lot of fun and the Japanese really take it to another level where they line the streets from early in the morning just to be able to catch the afternoon parade. Some notable rides were Space Mountain and the Beauty and the Beast which was a spectacular show of tech puppetry. Then we also stayed for the fireworks.

Day two was DisneySea. Again another rush in the morning but I guess we were a little more used to the rushing by now. The kids enjoyed DisneySea more and we actually did more queuing here than the day before. Notable rides were the Tower of Terror and the Flight rides which were again super cool and worth all the queuing and waiting in the cold.

Day three we went to Kawaguchiko to see Mt Fuji. It’s the place with the best view of Mt Fuji. Over there we also tried a very old ramen place which the wifey loved. The tempo slowed down somewhat and it was more serene and relaxing. But then when we were heading back the boy was playfully dancigg by and smashed his face into his crutch thereby breaking one of the lenses of his glasses. Boy how suay can you be siah, but we actually managed to rush back and found an Owndays store in Shinjuku and had a new pair made for only $50! Phew!

Day four was spent visiting Asakusa’s Sensoji Temple and praying for blessings. We also had omakase lunch and then to Akihabara. Our trip was winding down so we did a bit of shopping.

Day five was Christmas Eve. We went to Ueno Park for the National Museum and then to the Imperial Palace park grounds. Followed by Ginza for shopping.

Finally day six we visited Tsukiji Fish Market and then caught our afternoon flight back to Singapore.

What an epic trip!

Niseko, Japan 2023

 Our next leg of the epic trip was to Niseko.

Early in the morning we had to catch the travel coach to take us up the mountains.

Niseko lies on Mt Niseko-Annupuri.

The plan is to ski or snowboard for the next 6 days.

When we arrived at the Hirafu Welcome Center, it was already snowing and we had someone from The Vale, our hotel, pick us up. 

So the first day in Niseko we spent familiarizing with the place and then checking into our ultra posh hotel. We also met up with Eugene’s family (who were going to be with us this whole leg) and went for our ski and snowboarding gear fitting. Once all the equipment were sorted, we went out for Jap BBQ dinner and included David’s family too.

Day two was actual skiing and snowboarding. The kids had their own group lessons while the adults had our own private snowboarding lessons by Coach Carter. Snowboarding is not easy and we fell a lot but it was fun. Snow wasn’t fantastic and ski lifts were not working due to less optimal snowfall. At night we had dinner together at a random bar because all the restaurants were full.

Day three the snow didn’t improve. In fact at one point it rained and snowed at the same time, which is bad since we wanted pelting snow. We did well enough to push up to the mid slopes. Over there we got a magnificent view of Mt Yotei, the mountain peak opposite our mountain peak, which was awesome. Snowboarding skills were improving but my knees were getting bruised. The kids were definitely skiing better than the adults could snowboard. Dinner was an awesome ramen. Oh yah and every night I went to the onsen in our hotel which was so lovely, dipping in hot water even out in snowy conditions.

Day four and the snow finally improved! We were all so happy. We dropped the kids off at Grand Hirafu Mountain Center for group lessons and then went to Hanazono to continue our snowboarding lessons. Coach Carter followed and boy was the snow and the slopes there SO much better! It was great fun in nice powdery snow. Falling wasn’t so painful. Dinner was at a JingGisKhan restaurant, basically a meat BBQ restaurant. We also had a good snowball throwing competition which the kids were so hyped about.

Day five we brought the kids to Hanazono this time to experience the wonderful slopes and runs there. The snow just got better and better so snowboarding was really a lot more awesome. Had a beer with David again there. We were really doing a lot better now, without lessons. Dinner was at Kanpai for free flow shabu-shabu.

Day six we were back at our own slope. That morning after the first run Eugene and I were on the ski lift for the second run when I saw our kids lying in the snow midway and my son was saying he ‘fell the wrong way’. Immediately I knew something was off and had to rush down to check it out. Sure enough he hurt his knee so we quickly brought him to a physiotherapist near the hotel who diagnosed that he had a suspected MCL tear and meniscus tear. We had to put him on a brace and crutch. Also had to go to a clinic (the NIC) for a second opinion. Quite bummed about it but the boy was in good spirits. By afternoon we were back and I could go for two remaining runs before I had the worst fall of the trip while trying to attempt a vid of my run. Then we had dinner at our hotel restaurant and got drunks on five bottles of wine. Also played snowball championship with the kids again.

Finally it was day seven and we returned all our gear and checked out and the bus had to pick us up at noon. It was sad to leave Niseko tbh. We had such fun in our first lengthy snowy experience. The bus took us straight to New Chitose Airport where we hung out for awhile and then caught a late flight back to Tokyo.

Everything seems meh after Niseko :’(

Sapporo, Japan 2023

 Our epic Japan trip started with a day lost in Tokyo transiting for a night. We stayed at the Royal Park Haneda. Nothing much to crow about and the highlight for us was eating Yoshinoya for dinner followed by a walk to the airport’s Lawson convenience store.

Early next morning we flew out to New Chitose Airport already. I love Sapporo. It’s such a beautiful city and really less crowded compared to Osaka or Tokyo. 

Day one in Sapporo we checked into our rooms at Royal Canvas Sapporo, which was right outside the Sapporo TV Tower. There was a beautiful Christmas market at Odori Park and we hung out there for a while to enjoy the Christmas feels. Most Christmasy feelings I’ve ever had.

Then we went to the Sapporo Beer Museum but missed the 4pm cutoff for beer tasting, no big deal we still drank a lot this trip. Then we had dinner at Ramen Alley where it began to snow.

Ah snowing in the city is just so beautiful.

Next day we went to the Sapporo Crab Market for King Crab breakfast! Followed by Nijo Fish Market for lunch. then we went up to Mt Moiwa and stayed till evening to see the city by day and by night. In the evening we had Genghis Khan dinner with a very friendly owner.

On our final day in Sapporo we went to Shiroi Koibito Park to see how those expensive biscuits were made. Then to the beautiful Maruyama Park. What an awesome park in the winter, it was just covered in snow. Obviously we played snow while over there. Then we went to Sapporo TV Tower to see Odori Park and the rest of the city by day and by night. Just so lovely and magical. It was also snowing very heavily already.

Really love Sapporo.

Hello 2024, Goodbye 2023

 Somehow 2023 ended up being not the best. 

Maybe because inflation has creeped into everyone’s lives and people were feeling the pinch. Maybe because the job market is terrible right now and we hear of retrenchments everywhere and we don’t feel safe in our own jobs. Maybe because many people did not make money investing this year.

But there are a lot of good things that came out of 2023.

For me, it has been a generally positive year although because of the above, we go into 2024 with trepidation.

Here’s a quick round up of my year past.

This was a year of super travel for me, both for work and leisure.

Started off with Malacca in March with my cousins, then Hong Kong in April for work. Then it was Melbourne in June with in-laws, followed by Shanghai for work again. Kuala Lumpur to see mother’s side of the family followed in July and after that it was Bali in September with sec school bros. Hong Kong and Tokyo for work consecutively in September and October, before the epic Sapporo, Niseko and Tokyo family holiday.

Lots of money very well spent traveling and spending time with family.

Work front was not the best. There has been significant transition as part of adapting to the challenging landscape in the industry. High interest rate environments have always been poor for the whole financial industry in general and the longer it persists, the heavier its toll on all companies in this industry. Hopefully we can steer the ship towards calmer waters and better performance in the new year. Even the tech industry which we overlap into is suffering. The pandemic years have lulled businesses into thinking that online performance would still be stellar when reality is that people are going offline more nowadays.

Health has been relatively ok, probably could’ve exercised more but with work being so busy and WFO a full on through the year, it was tougher to find the time. Yet I still managed to participate and clock fairly good timings for the JPM Run and the Bloomberg Sq Mile relay. Didn’t go for a full body check up but have been taking my meds and have had blood tests to check whatever that could be checked there. Also donated blood twice.

Family has been good too. The kids are doing great, the boy has had a very enjoyable sec one experience in a good school with good company while the girl is maturing in upper primary. This year will be an important year for her. Loving both to the moon and back. Parents are still healthy so that’s a good thing too.

Personal finance suffered a bit with bad investments and trades throughout the year. Risk management is definitely an area I need to improve on, or maybe if I stopped trading altogether, I might be significantly richer, something I ought to resolve doing this new year.

Here’s really hoping and wishing that 2024 will be a more prosperous and happy year ahead.

So as with tradition, here’s last year’s review as a good reminder.

And here were my 2023 resolutions.

And below are my 2023 resolutions review.

1) Achieve One Milestone That I Have Not Done/Experienced Before PASS

So this is definitely a PASS. Snowboarding was something I definitely haven’t done in my life and to learn it and then be able to accomplish my runs (with falls) was a huge win, I even achieved my goal of taking a video of myself snowboarding albeit it causing my worst fall.

2) Make One Large Purchase That Has A Positive Impact In My Life PASS

This was also a pass. Between listening to the wifey and buying that dryer and changing our washing machine during rainy season which has been the best home purchase this year, and the whole Japan year end family trip, that’s possibly one of our best family trips ever, I would say it’s hard to choose between the two but they both qualify.

3) Increase My Networth By 200K FAIL

This was an abject failure. Between the many failed trades and gambles that I let spiral out of control, not only did I fail in this resolution, I also did not increase my networth in FY23. I have to do a lot better this year to shore up my defence finances.

4) Exercise At Least Half Hour Three Time A Week PASS

This would be a borderline pass for me. I’ve managed a weekday run and a weekend run almost all year. Both of which last longer than half an hour. The third exercise session is a little more irregular though. Some weeks I achieve it while other weeks I get busy with work and cannot accomplish it. I will have to be more disciplined this year in order to achieve something similar.

5) Ear Less Carbohydrates PASS

This is a big pass. I have, since the beginning of the second half of the year, been a lot more conscious about eating less carbs. Thankfully this has contributed to my weight stagnation. I will need to take it up another level to attain some weight loss though. I’ve already cut down on sugar intake significantly so carbs (which is harder) is the next that I have to better regulate.

———-

So all in 4/5 PASSes! Wow, this is a terrific past year of achieved resolutions!

I have thought of my 2024 ones already so just have to put them in writing.

Hopefully I get attain such a similar result once more in a year’s time!

Starting The New Year Right

 Credit to the wifey for today’s plan when I was expecting to nuah the day away.

We start off with swimming in the morning.

Starting the new year right I’d say.

Hoping for a much better year ahead compared to last year (which really wasn’t all that bad!).