Sunday, October 10, 2010

Beginning Of The Currency Wars

So it's pretty obvious that for all the US rhetoric pressing China to devalue the CNY, they themselves have succumbed to their own form of devaluation. By simply flushing the system wih even more USD while calling for a simultaneous rise in CNY does come across as hypocritical, but I choose to see it as the next best alternative since China doesn't want to budge. And rightly so too, since appreciation too quickly will almost surely halt China's growth. It will still be a gradual process if left to their own means.

So with the USD depreciating by the day, the EUR and JPY are suffering from too high a valuation. with the BOJ intervening in September and the free markets not taking heed (JPY was intervened at 83 and currently languishing below 82), it will surely spell another round of intervention shortly. Europe is also starting to talk about intervening, and it's more a question of when and not if now.

That surely leaves us wih a very strong SGD which we could yet suffer for if the MAS doesn't do anything about it. But you surely cannot discount the possibility of SGD and USD parity. You know how much richer Singaporeans will be if that really happens?

Strongest currency to bank on now is the AUD. Already almost at parity with the USD, this currency is closestly linked with Gold prices. And what better asset class to hold onto when the world's major currencies are crumbling?

That's right.

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